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Latest posts.

Essays and analysis without the noise. Markets, economics, and what's actually beneath the headlines.

The GST windfall that isn't

31 Mar 2026

State Premiers are performing generosity with a GST windfall that doesn't exist, adding to debt and stoking inflation at the worst possible time.

How much fuel does Australia really have?

30 Mar 2026

Australia's fuel reserves are thin, but they aren't the reason you're paying more at the pump.

There's no shortage of bad ideas in Australia

26 Mar 2026

Almost every proposed response to Australia's fuel crisis would make it worse.

The RBA is losing the war on credibility

25 Mar 2026

The RBA spent 2025 fuelling a fire it now lacks the credibility to extinguish.

The economics of a Liberal bloodbath

24 Mar 2026

When your political strategy relies on a version of the economy that hasn't existed since 1960, a historic bloodbath is the only logical outcome.

Oil is already being rationed

22 Mar 2026

The biggest risk for Australia isn't the oil shock itself but that the urge to "do something" worsens the situation before the crisis is resolved.

The oil shock in context

20 Mar 2026

Australia's current oil crisis is a race between a rapid global supply response and the domestic urge to 'do something' that inevitably makes the situation worse.

The capital gains tax discount is a red herring

18 Mar 2026

The CGT debate is a distraction from a much harder truth: Australia's tax and transfer system is no longer fit for an aging population.

Australia's inflation problem is home-grown

16 Mar 2026

Australia's underlying inflation problem was made in Canberra and Martin Place, not Tehran.

Paul O'Malley's misunderstandings about AI and trade

12 Mar 2026

The risk to Australia isn't using AI built elsewhere but letting domestic incumbents like CBA use 'sovereignty' as a shield for protectionism.